diff --git a/runbooks/gitea-operational-quirks.md b/runbooks/gitea-operational-quirks.md
index b48fe861..3bc1cd94 100644
--- a/runbooks/gitea-operational-quirks.md
+++ b/runbooks/gitea-operational-quirks.md
@@ -141,12 +141,51 @@ files. Secrets and variables are repo-level.
 
 ---
 
-## `fetch-depth: 0` on `actions/checkout` times out
+## Gitea combined status reports `failure` when all contexts are `null`
 
-`actions/checkout` with `fetch-depth: 0` triggers a full repo history fetch
-which exceeds the runner's network timeout to the git remote (~15 s).
+### Finding
 
-**Workaround**: Use `fetch-depth: 1` (default) and add explicit
-`git fetch origin <ref> --depth=1` for any additional refs needed.
+When ALL individual status contexts for a commit have `state: null` (no runner
+has reported yet), Gitea reports the combined commit status as `failure`. This
+is a Gitea Actions bug — it conflates "no status reported yet" with "failed".
 
-**Reference**: PR #441 detect-changes fetch step.
+### Impact
+
+- The `main-red-watchdog` workflow opens a `[main-red]` issue for every
+  scheduled workflow run where the combined state is `failure` — even when
+  the failure is entirely due to Gitea's combined-status bug.
+- This causes spurious `[main-red]` issues that waste SRE time investigating
+  non-existent failures.
+- **This is especially confusing for `schedule:`-only workflows** (canary,
+  sweep jobs, synth-E2E): Gitea attributes their scheduled runs to `main`'s
+  HEAD commit, so if a scheduled run fires while all contexts are still
+  `state: null`, the watchdog opens a `[main-red]` issue on the latest main
+  commit even though that commit itself is perfectly fine.
+
+### How to diagnose
+
+Always check the **individual context `state` fields**, not the combined
+`state`/`combined_state`. In the `/repos/{org}/{repo}/commits/{sha}/statuses`
+API response, look for `"state": null` on every entry — if all are null, the
+combined `failure` is Gitea's bug, not a real CI failure.
+
+```json
+{
+  "combined_state": "failure",   // ← Gitea bug when all are null
+  "contexts": [
+    { "context": "CI / Lint", "state": null },  // still running
+    { "context": "CI / Test", "state": null }   // still running
+  ]
+}
+```
+
+### Affected workflows
+
+All workflows, but especially `schedule:`-only workflows that run on `main`.
+The main-red-watchdog (`.gitea/workflows/main-red-watchdog.yml`) is the
+primary consumer of combined status and is affected.
+
+### References
+
+- Issue #481: first real-world case of this bug (2026-05-11)
+- `feedback_no_such_thing_as_flakes`: watchdog directive